https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/251 Sun, 05 Apr 2026 17:58:21 GMT 2026-04-05T17:58:21Z https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10845 Forecasting of COVID-19 Fatality in the USA: Comparison of Artificial Neural Network-Based Models Hatipoğlu, Veysel Fuat The first death caused by the novel coronavirus in the USA was declared on February 29, 2020, in the Seattle area in Washington state. Forecasting the number of deaths has great importance in terms of public psychology and strategic decisions to be taken by the government. There are several data-driven models in the literature to predict the deaths in the USA caused by COVID-19. However, most of them are based on a few variables of the data for forecasting. From this point of view, this study provides an artificial neural network (ANN)-based approach by considering 12 different variables for forecasting the cumulative deaths caused by COVID-19 in the USA. The proposed ANN structure was trained with three algorithms, namely scaled conjugate gradient algorithm, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and Bayesian regularization algorithm. These three forecasting models were constructed on 13 parameters such as 12 inputs and one output. The sensitivity and performance of the proposed forecasting models were analyzed and compared by using indices mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, correlation coefficient (R-value), sum square error, variance account for, mean square error and root-mean-square error. Results show that the forecasting model with Bayesian regularization performs better than other models for forecasting the cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 in the USA. Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10845 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10696 The Role of Community Based Tourism in Avoiding Overtourism Saltık, Işıl Arıkan; Turgut, Uygar Overtourism is one of the terms that has appeared in the literature recently, meaning the excessive number of tourists and the impacts of their flows on local communities and ecology. The increase in anti-tourism events around the world is a significant indicator of the effects of overtourism on communities. The underlying reason for the problem is mainly based on the decisions which were taken in a hurry, without proper evaluation, consideration of necessary matters, and often without active participation and inclusion of communities. Community development intends to flourish social, economic, environmental and cultural welfare and prosperity of communities, particularly made up of disadvantaged and marginalized people. Community based tourism development is one of the key factors to avoid that senseless anti-tourism sentiment and proceed to bring societies and cultures closer together through developing understanding and contact. Growing guest arrivals inflict an intense pressure on the environment and local community and their culture in a destination, thereby deteriorating both the quality of tourists’ experiences and the life quality of local people. Rapid growth in tourism and undesirable condensation disrupt the sustainability of a destination causing local community and other stakeholders no more show any interest in further tourism development and making them feel they suffer since their access to opportunities, comfort, and health etc. is inhibited. It is significant that the technological revolution and intense usage of social media by tourists have been triggers to overtourism. However, COVID-19 Pandemic period may be an opportunity to invest both in technology and the further to help mitigate overtourism after COVID-19 when the crowd come back. In this context, this chapter explains the importance of community development in tourism and indicates considering community frustration to avoid adverse effects of tourism, in particular overtourism, and mentions how technology could be utilized in this period. Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10696 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10559 Analyzing the Impact of Consumer Confidence Index and Geopolitical Risk Indices on Foreign Trade in Food Commodities: Evidence from Turkey Gürsoy, Samet; Karabulut, Ali Naci; Bulut, Zeki Atıl In recent years, the increase in global crises in areas such as climate, food, health, and international relations has led to an increase in the level of interest of both economists and senior managers in macroeconomic indicators. In this context, the consumer confidence index and the geopolitical risk index have become increasingly popular in both econometric analyses and academic discussions. In this study, the effects of consumer confidence and geopolitical risk indices on food imports and exports in Turkey for the period between January 2013 and January 2021 were analyzed through symmetric and asymmetric causality analyses. The consistent results of the Toda Yamamoto causality and Hatemi-j asymmetric causality tests indicated that a decrease in the consumer confidence index in Turkey leads to a decrease in exports of processed food goods and an increase in geopolitical risk leads to an increase in imports of unprocessed food goods. Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10559 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10108 Development and psychometric properties of the leader apology scale Altuoğlu, Ali Ender; Şahin, Faruk; Babacan, Sümeyra Three studies examine the utility and validity of the Turkish version of the leader apology measure using organizational samples from several industries. Study 1 (N = 263) indicated that four distinct and internally consistent factors shaped employee response to the leader apology measure. The proposed four-factor structure of leader apology was confirmed by confirmatory factor analysis in Study 2 (N = 207). Leader apology measure was positively associated with authentic leadership, employees' organizational identification, and work engagement. Study 3 (N = 166) provided concurrent evidence that leader apology is positively associated with follower job satisfaction, and transformational leadership mediates this relationship. The results suggest that manager-employee relationships may benefit from leader apology.; Cetarticlecomportetroisétudesquiportentsurl'utilitéetlavaliditédelaversionturquedelamesuredel'excuseduleader.Cesétudess'appuientsurdeséchantillonsorganisationnelsdeplusieursindustries.Il ressortdel’étude1(N= 263)quequatrefacteursdistinctsetcohérentsauniveauinterneinflu-encentlaréponsedesemployésà lamesured'excusesduleader.L'analysefactorielleconfirmatoiredel’étude2 (N= 207)confirmela structureà quatrefacteursproposéepourlesexcusesduleader.Lamesured'excusesduleaderestpositivementassociéeauleadershipauthentique,à l'identificationorgan-isationnelledesemployésetà l'engagementautravail.L’étude3 (N=166)présentedespreuvessimultanéesmontrantquelesexcusesduleadersontpositivementassociéesà lasatisfactionprofessionnelledel'employéetqueleleadershiptransformationnelfavorisecetterelation.Selonlesrésultats,lesrelationsentrelesmanagerset lesemployéspeuventbénéficierdesexcusesduleader Sat, 01 Jan 2022 00:00:00 GMT https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/10108 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z