Forecasting the Energy Consumption in Afghanistan with the ARIMA Model

Abstract

The forecasting of the energy demand has a crucial role in the long-term development of the electrical network and power management. In this study, the energy consumption in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has been investigated, in order to evaluate the expected change in the following years. The linear model ARIMA(1,1,1) has been selected for the situation and statistical analysis has been performed. The obtained results showed that the energy demand is expected to continue its increase and by the end of 2024, it should be in the range from 4391 GWh to 8375 GWh anually. The obtained information could be used for mid- and long-term planning of the electrical network development and the energy production in the country.