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Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium

Date

2018

Author

Xoplaki, Elena
Luterbacher, Juerg
Wagner, Sebastian
Zorita, Eduardo
Fleitmann, Dominik
Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes
Izdebski, Adam

Metadata

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Abstract

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095-1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260-1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and CelA cent lI Rebellion (1580-1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

Source

Human Ecology

Volume

46

Issue

3

URI

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12809/1456

Collections

  • PubMed İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu [2082]
  • Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu [6219]
  • WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu [6466]



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